Facts first. Assumptions visible. Readers decide.
A documented fact is presented as a fact. A calculation can be reproduced from its inputs. A projection is credited to the institution that made it. An estimate states its assumptions. A stakeholder argument is presented as a position, not as this report's conclusion. Look for these labels:
Five things Amendment 3 would change
The Legislature placed the measure on the ballot through CS/HJR 1-F in a June 2026 special session. If approved, it takes effect January 1, 2027.[2]
- 1
- 2
Lower cap for non-homestead property
Annual growth in assessed value for rentals, second homes and commercial property is capped at 5%, down from 10%, for every levy except school taxes.[2]
- 3
- 4
- 5
FactThe ballot wording was rewritten by court order. On Aug. 4, 2026 a Leon County judge ruled the original title, "Save Our Homes From Excessive Property Taxes," was "akin to a political slogan." The amendment stayed on the ballot; the Attorney General filed neutral language on Aug. 14. The title voters will see: Increased Homestead Exemption; Lower Cap on Increases in Non-Homestead Property Assessments.[17][18]
Timeline
- Nov. 3, 2026Voters decide. Approval requires 60%.[10]
- Jan. 1, 2027Exemption up to $150,000. Non-homestead cap drops to 5%. Spending limits begin.
- 2028Exemption up to $250,000.
- 2029 and laterThe $250,000 maximum rises with inflation each year.
Estimate your own savings
Savings depend on your assessed value (not market value) and the total non-school millage on your bill. Both are on your annual TRIM notice from the Property Appraiser. One mill is $1 of tax per $1,000 of taxable value.
Savings estimator
CalculationApplies to homesteads owned by Florida residents as of Dec. 31, 2026. Holds assessed value and millage constant. School taxes are unchanged. The 6.0 mills shown is an example; use the total from your own TRIM notice.
The pattern behind the numbers
| Assessed value | Non-school taxable today | 2027 | 2028 | Saved per mill, 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200,000 | $148,589 | $50,000 | $0 | $149 |
| $350,000 | $298,589 | $200,000 | $100,000 | $199 |
| $600,000 | $548,589 | $450,000 | $350,000 | $199 |
AnalysisThe dollar benefit is capped. Every homestead assessed at $250,000 or more saves the same amount per mill from 2028, so a $600,000 home and a $1.2 million home save the same dollars. Lower-value homesteads save fewer dollars but can see their non-school tax eliminated.
FactAt the County's Sept. 29 town hall, the County Administrator said a homeowner paying $3,400 a year could pay about $2,700 in 2027, and one paying $3,500 could pay about $2,100 in 2028.[16]
The condition behind every savings figure: local tax rates stay the same. If a government raises its rate to make up lost revenue, part of each homestead's savings goes away and non-homestead owners pay more. See County response.
A fast-growing county with a large property-tax base
Sources: U.S. Census[9]; Property Appraiser[6].
Who owns the tax base
| Category | Parcels | Taxable value | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Homesteaded residential | 98,009 | $33.2B | 52.6% |
| Non-homestead residential | 54,360 | $19.7B | 31.2% |
| Commercial | 12,844 | $8.0B | 12.7% |
| Other (tangible property, land, ag, industrial) | — | $2.2B | 3.5% |
| All property | 183,425 | $63.1B | 100% |
AnalysisAbout 53% of taxable value is homestead and gets the larger exemption. About 44% is non-homestead residential or commercial and gets only the 5% cap. If rates rise to replace lost revenue, that 44% pays the higher rate on value that was never exempted. That is the mechanism behind the "tax shift" argument.
Where County property-tax dollars go
County-published FY2027 allocation, shaded by whether the amendment's list of permitted uses covers each category.[4]
AnalysisParks and libraries, health and human services, and economic development make up about 12% of the allocation, roughly $51 million of the FY2027 baseline. UnknownWhether "operations and administration" or "natural resources" could cover any of them has not been decided.
CalculationThe denominator matters. A $68.3 million reduction is about 16% of FY2027 property-tax revenue ($426M), about 5% of the $1.46B operating budget, and about 3.5% of the $1.94B total budget including $482M of capital carryforward. Only the first figure reflects money the County can move freely.[4][5][22]
EDR projects a growing reduction in County revenue
ProjectionFlorida's Office of Economic & Demographic Research (EDR) estimates the reduction in St. Johns County Commission property-tax revenue if the amendment passes:[3]
Exact estimates: $68,265,055; $136,081,441; $152,492,701; $171,151,761; $191,611,200. Five-year total: $719.6 million (calculation).
How big is that relative to revenue?
| Assumed baseline growth | FY2028 | FY2030 | FY2032 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3% a year | 15.6% | 32.8% | 38.8% |
| 5% a year | 15.3% | 30.9% | 35.2% |
| 7% a year | 15.0% | 29.2% | 32.1% |
EstimateEach year's EDR reduction divided by the $426M FY2027 baseline grown at the stated rate. Dividing by a fixed $426M would overstate later years, because the tax base keeps growing.
What the model doesn't decide
EDR models the tax base. It does not decide future millage, spending, fees, reserves, capital timing or state aid. UnknownEDR also can't estimate the effect of future laws expanding local exemptions, and its count of newer residents relies on assumptions because there is no official forecast of people moving to Florida.[3]
Other governments in the county are separate: EDR's FY2028 estimates are $3.85M for independent special districts, $3.19M for St. Augustine and $0.70M for St. Augustine Beach. The School District is outside the new exemption and the 5% cap. Statewide, the Revenue Estimating Conference puts the reduction near $11.9B a year once fully in effect.[3][20]
The strongest case on each side
Each argument appears as its supporters and opponents make it. These are positions, not this report's conclusions.
Supporters
Local property-tax collections have outgrown homeowners' ability to pay, and only permanent constitutional relief will hold.
Their case
Collections have outrun the need. Statewide property-tax revenue nearly doubled in seven years, from about $32B to $60B, and is projected to reach $83B by 2032.[11]
Owners are taxed on gains they haven't realized. Rising values raise bills when income doesn't, hitting retirees hardest. 22.5% of St. Johns residents are 65 or older.[9]
Businesses and rentals benefit too. The 5% cap slows assessment growth on non-homestead property.[2]
A revenue loss isn't a service cut. Governments can reprioritize and grow into the gap.
What the evidence supports
FactQualifying homeowners get direct, permanent non-school relief. FactA 2026 law (CS/SB 4-F) makes rate increases harder to pass.[8]
Questions still open
Who funds services the amendment no longer allows? Is the newer-resident rule fair, and will it hold up in court?
Opponents
Cutting a major revenue source doesn't remove the cost of services. The burden moves to someone else, or services shrink.
Their case
It's a tax shift. Florida TaxWatch agrees "significant relief is warranted" but recommends a no vote, saying exemptions that benefit only some properties "are not really tax cuts as much as tax shifts." The Florida League of Cities makes the same argument.[13][12]
It widens existing gaps. Save Our Homes already favors long-time owners over new buyers; a five-year wait for newcomers widens that.[13][14]
No replacement funding. Local governments get no state help closing the gap.[13]
Distortion. The Tax Foundation warns non-homestead taxes could jump if rates rise, and favors a cap on levy growth instead.[14]
What the evidence supports
ProjectionThe County reduction is substantial: $68.3M rising to $191.6M. Fact58% of County property tax funds the Sheriff and Fire Rescue.[3][4]
Questions still open
Which services are truly exposed? How much can be lawfully moved to other funding, or absorbed by growth and reserves?
The rules for raising the tax rate
FactA 2026 law, CS/SB 4-F (Chapter 2026-240), applies whether or not Amendment 3 passes. It ties local millage limits to the rolled-back rate: the rate that raises the same revenue as last year, not counting new construction.[8][23]
| County Commission vote | Highest rate allowed |
|---|---|
| Simple majority | Rolled-back rate, or last year's rate if higher |
| Two-thirds | Up to 110% of the rolled-back rate |
| Unanimous (5 of 5) or referendum | Above 110% |
AnalysisThe open question that matters most. The rolled-back rate is recalculated each year from last year's revenue and this year's taxable value. If a bigger exemption shrinks taxable value, the rolled-back rate would rise on its own, and a simple majority could adopt a rate that restores much of the lost revenue.
UnknownWhether exemption-driven value loss is handled this way in practice should be confirmed with the County budget office.
CalculationReplacing a 15–16% revenue reduction entirely through the tax rate would need a rate about 18–19% higher. Replacing a 32–39% reduction would need one about 47–64% higher, paid on the smaller remaining base. The Constitution caps county millage at 10 mills; the County's FY2026 general-fund rate was about 4.5 mills, so that cap is not the limit that matters.[10][24]
What the County has done so far
The County says it began preparing in May 2026 and that its purpose is preparation, not advocacy. It has put about $100M of capital projects on hold (including a planned Beachwalk fire station), held $8.6M in positions, set aside a $30M reserve for Amendment 3, and reviewed 380 services and 1,137 fees.[4][19]
AnalysisThe $8.6M in position holds is the only recurring saving identified so far, about 13% of the first-year gap. The $130M of held projects and reserves is one-time money: it can bridge most of the first two years but can't replace revenue that is lost every year. The separate $31.2M emergency reserve is for disasters and is left out.
Options beyond "raise taxes or cut services"
Recurring revenue
Only where state law allows it, after voter approval, restrictions and collection costs.
Expense redesign
Vacancies, contracts, procurement and service levels, tested against results rather than across-the-board cuts.
Restricted-fund displacement
Transportation, tourism or assessment money that lawfully covers costs now paid from flexible funds.
Capital timing
Deferring projects saves cash now but can raise costs and delay needed capacity. It isn't recurring revenue.
Assets and enterprise income
County land, leases and concessions, tested for market value and legal limits.
Millage within the new rules
Subject to the vote thresholds above. Reduces homestead savings and raises non-homestead bills.
Facts, unknowns and your call
Known
- The larger exemption applies only to non-school taxes.
- Homesteads save about $99 per mill in 2027 and up to $199 per mill from 2028, at today's rates.
- EDR projects lower County revenue: $68.3M in FY2028, $191.6M in FY2032.
- Rate increases now face the CS/SB 4-F vote thresholds.
- No official source lists predetermined service cuts.
Not yet known
- The actual impact from FY2028 on.
- How the rolled-back rate will be calculated after the exemption rises.
- Whether parks, libraries and similar services fit any permitted use.
- Whether the newer-resident rule survives a court challenge.
- How much business and rental savings reach prices and rents.
Your call
- Homeowner relief versus stable local revenue.
- Long-time residents versus newer arrivals.
- Which taxpayers should carry more or less of the cost.
- Which service levels are worth paying for.
Two voters can agree on every number here and still vote differently, because they weigh relief, services, growth and fairness differently.
Questions to ask the County before Nov. 3: How would the rolled-back rate be calculated in 2027? Which services fall outside the permitted uses, and how would they be funded? What recurring savings exist beyond position holds? What would a typical homestead and a typical small business pay under each option being considered?
Primary sources first
- Florida Department of State, Constitutional Amendments 2026. dos.elections.myflorida.com/initiatives
- Florida Legislature, CS/HJR 1-F (2026F) and House final staff analysis. flsenate.gov
- Florida EDR, Revenue Estimating Conference county estimates, July 10, 2026. edr.state.fl.us
- St. Johns County, Amendment 3 preparation update, Sept. 2026. prnewswire.com
- St. Johns County, Fiscal Year 2027 Budget. sjcfl.us/2027-budget
- St. Johns County Property Appraiser, 2026 Preliminary DOR Submission Fact Sheet. sjcpa.gov
- St. Johns County Property Appraiser, Homestead Exemption & Portability. sjcpa.gov
- Florida Legislature, CS/SB 4-F, Ch. 2026-240, and Senate staff analysis. flsenate.gov
- U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts: St. Johns County. census.gov
- Florida Constitution, Art. VII s. 9; Art. XI s. 5. flsenate.gov
- Executive Office of the Governor, special session announcement, 2026. flgov.com
- Florida League of Cities, Property Tax Legislative Bill Summaries, May 2026. flcities.com
- Florida TaxWatch, The Florida Taxpayer's Guide for the 2026 Constitutional Amendments. floridataxwatch.org
- Tax Foundation, "The Real November Ballot Question." taxfoundation.org
- Pinellas County Property Appraiser, Amendment 3 FAQ. pcpao.gov
- News4JAX, St. Johns County Amendment 3 town hall, Sept. 29, 2026. news4jax.com
- Florida Phoenix, ballot language ruling, Aug. 4, 2026. floridaphoenix.com
- Jones Walker, Florida's revised property tax amendment ballot language, Aug. 2026. joneswalker.com
- St. Johns Citizen, $100M in projects put on hold ahead of tax vote. sjcitizen.com
- Florida Chamber of Commerce, Florida's 2026 Property Tax Amendment. flchamber.com
- Florida Policy Institute, Amendment 3 ballot summary and fiscal impacts. floridapolicy.org
- Jax Today, St. Johns County eyes $1.46B budget, July 21, 2026. jaxtoday.org
- Florida Statutes s. 200.065, method of fixing millage. flsenate.gov
- St. Johns County, Proposed FY2026 budget release. sjcfl.us
Web sources accessed September 30, 2026.